August 25, 2021

Mid-Size Pharmaceutical Company Requests Business Model Analysis to Combat Lost Market Share


A mid-size pharmaceutical company was losing market share and considering withdrawing sales support for one of their products. Due to an entrenched market and other complicating factors, the sponsor requested that Kineticos investigate the repercussions of salesforce withdrawal on market share, pricing, and overall sales.


Kineticos started by investigating:

  • Historical sales data provided by the sponsor
  • Strategic analogs with risk assessments
  • Future events expected to impact sales

Kineticos then assessed the sponsor’s current forecast model and applied insights from the historical sales data to adjust the model accordingly. Ultimately, three sales forecast scenarios (including pro forma P&L) were developed: low case, base case, and high case.

Also, Kineticos provided in-depth primary and secondary recommendations aimed at minimizing revenue loss, including:

  • The extent of salesforce withdrawal
  • Strategic initiatives for a reduced salesforce
  • Other advertising and promotional strategies


  • Three sales forecast scenarios
  • Primary and secondary recommendations


The CEO and Board of Directors approved Kineticos’ recommendations. Before acting on any of them, the company unexpectedly obtained a marketed product in an adjacent therapeutic area, adding complexity to the engagement. Kineticos was subsequently retained to provide the sponsor with forecast scenarios that incorporated the new product along with additional previously unknown variables.