August 25, 2021

Commercialization Scenarios Steer a Specialty Pharmaceutical Company’s Regional Expansion Strategy


A specialty pharmaceutical company focused on rare hematological disorders needed support and guidance in establishing a market expansion strategy. The sponsor had recently experienced a successful US launch but required support evaluating commercialization models for Canada. The sponsor shared some foundational assumptions regarding the market opportunity but needed specific expertise to tease out the unique market factors to quantify the opportunity and determine whether to build a commercial infrastructure or establish a partnership.


Leaning on therapeutic and regional expertise, Kineticos began by conducting rigorous market research (primary and secondary) to formulate revenue assumptions such as:


  • Market uptake and share
  • Patient flow and compliance
  • Pricing and reimbursement


Kineticos then analyzed to estimate costs associated with building out a commercial team for the Canadian market. Leveraging market analogs and benchmarks to assess upfront licensing fees along with expected royalties and milestones for a partnering scenario, Kineticos was able to provide the sponsor with a fact-based tradeoff analysis intended to drive the Canadian commercialization strategy.


The research indicated that the sponsor’s original revenue assumptions were approximately 50% higher than the actual market opportunity. Furthermore, it was determined that the variance was due to a lack of understanding of the Canadian market access landscape. Given this new information, the sponsor decided to partner the program rather than build a commercial infrastructure. Kineticos’ research findings and forecast were leveraged throughout partnering discussions and ultimately resulted in the sponsor executing an attractive licensing transaction.