Situation:

A publicly traded pharmaceutical company with a stagnant Phase II ready PDE4 inhibitor asset required support to determine a lead indication. Having specific expertise with PDE4 inhibitors, Kineticos was tasked with conducting a comprehensive commercial assessment of three (3) unique therapeutic areas followed by a tradeoff analysis to help strategically guide the clinical development of their asset.

Process:

The analysis included the below components for each indication:

  • Disease and treatment overview
  • Target Product Profile including minimum market entry and gold standard for:
    • Safety
    • Efficacy
    • Dosing
    • Health Economics
  • 7-year revenue and rNPVs model that carefully considered variables such as probability of success, clinical/SG&A costs, market share, etc.

Outcome:

The tradeoff analysis provided evidence of one (1) indication that presented less risk and more commercial potential than the alternatives. Leveraging the analysis, Kineticos provided the sponsor with what was perceived to be the optimal route, equipping the firm with the most risk-adverse road map for the clinical development of their asset. After presenting the recommendations to the firm’s Board of Directors, Kineticos subsequently supported the firm with the design of the Phase II trial for the recommended indication.