Situation:

A mid-size pharmaceutical company that unexpectedly obtained a marketed therapy in an adjacent therapeutic area as one of their existing therapies was in need of knowing what financial impact the sudden addition would have on the organization. Given the complexity of the market and potential synergies between the two drugs, it was requested that Kineticos provide a prescription-based forecast model for the newly re-acquired therapy, taking into account factors such as sales force sizing, advertising & promotional spend, pricing, and managed care acceptance.

Process:

Kineticos rigorously examined all historical sales and Rx data, previous forecasts, and market research. Working closely with the sponsor, Kineticos determined the most likely scenario for each variable and built a robust, fully-functional prescription-based forecast model with adjustable inputs for the variables (e.g. market size, market share, A&P spend, sales force sizing and impact, price increases, managed care acceptance, etc.), allowing the sponsor to utilize the model in subsequent strategy meetings.

Outcome:

Upon receiving approval from the firm’s CEO, the forecast was presented and approved by the Board of Directors and leveraged throughout the firm’s strategic planning process.