Situation:

A mid-size pharmaceutical company was losing market share and considering withdrawing sales support for one of their products. Due to an entrenched market and other complicating factors, the sponsor requested that Kineticos support them with investigating the repercussions of sales force withdrawal on market share, pricing, and overall sales.

Process:

Kineticos commenced by investigating historical sales data provided by the sponsor, as well as strategic analogs with risk assessment and future events expected to impact sales. Kineticos then assessed the sponsor’s current forecast model and applied insights obtained from the historical sales data to adjust the model accordingly. Ultimately, three sales forecast scenarios (including pro forma P&L) were developed: low case, base case, and high case. In addition, Kineticos provided in-depth primary and secondary recommendations aimed at minimizing revenue loss, including the extent of sales force withdrawal, strategic initiatives for a reduced sales force, and other advertising & promotional strategies.

Outcome:

The CEO and Board of Directors approved Kineticos’ recommendations but prior to acting on any of them, the company unexpectedly obtained a marketed product in an adjacent therapeutic area, adding a complexity to the engagement. Kineticos was subsequently retained to provide the sponsor with forecast scenarios that incorporated the new product along with additional previously unknown variables.